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  Wednesday, October 23, 2019
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The Central Bank of Russia has forecast the outflow of capital from Russia this year at around $12 billion
"I earlier cited the figure of 12 billion (dollars), and I believe that there are no grounds now to revise it," first deputy chairman of the Central Bank of Russia Alexei Ulyukayev told journalists on Wednesday. The Central Bank has forecast the outflow of capital next year at around $9 billion, he went on to say. Mr. Ulyukayev also stated that now the Central Bank is not going to reduce the refinancing interest rate. "We have no grounds now to reduce the rate of financing, with inflation being 10.5-11%," he said. (He stated earlier that inflation would be "between 10.5 and 11% at the end of the year, and 8.5% next year. Mr. Ulyukayev also stressed that the forecast of inflation at 8.5% for next year is "quite reasonable and well-grounded.") According to him, it is a normal situation when the refinancing interest rate exceeds the inflation rate by 2-2.5 percentage points. At the same time he did not rule it out that the Bank of Russia will revise the rate of refinancing next year. Mr. Ulyukayev forecasts that the strengthening of the real effective exchange rate of the ruble following this year will make up 6 or just over 6%. He noted that the ruble's real effective exchange rate compared to the beginning of this year has currently grown stronger by approximately 5.7%. According to the Central Bank's forecast, by the end of this year the ruble's nominal exchange rate to the dollar will fluctuate from 28.6 to 29 rubles per dollar, Mr. Ulyukayev said.
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