Logo
  Wednesday, November 13, 2019
Sign-In  |  Sign-Up  |  Contact Us  |  Bookmark 

Russia's GDP growth could drop to 5.7% in 2009 against
Russia's GDP growth could drop to 5.7% in 2009 against the official forecast of 6.7%, due to the ongoing global financial crisis, the finance minister said on Wednesday.

"This is only a forecast, it needs a major study," Alexei Kudrin told reporters.

The government's GDP growth forecast for 2008 remains unchanged at 7.8%. Kudrin earlier said the economy could grow by up to 8% this year.

Net capital inflow into Russia could be less than $30 billion in 2008, compared with the original forecast of $40 billion, he said.

World oil prices may drop to $70 per barrel but will most likely stabilize at around $90 per barrel or slightly lower in the near future, Kudrin said, adding that the budget would be able to withstand price fluctuations for more than three years, even if the price of crude fell to $40-50 per barrel.

Kudrin said the 2008 budget would remain balanced with oil prices ranging from $60 to $70 per barrel. Next year, the federal budget will be deficit-free with oil prices at a level of $70 per barrel.

The draft federal budget for 2009-2011 is based on an average yearly oil price of $95 per barrel in 2009, $90 per barrel in 2010, and $88 per barrel in 2011. Inflation is expected to hit 7.5-8.5% in 2009, 5.5-7% in 2010, and 5-6.8% in 2011, Kudrin said.

Analysts say the global financial crisis is most likely to push global oil prices down, but that they are unlikely to drop below $80 per barrel in the 2008/2009 winter season.

Investment into Russia is expected at 9 trillion rubles ($360 billion), but only around 10% of this will come in the form of loans, a low percentage compared to developed countries, Kudrin said, adding that the stock market and loans should become the main source of investment in Russia.


Print Russia's GDP growth could drop to 5.7% in 2009 against Bookmark Russia's GDP growth could drop to 5.7% in 2009 against

Related News   
SepOctober 2008Nov
MoTuWeThFrSaSu
293012345
6789101112
13141516171819
20212223242526
272829303112
3456789