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The Moscow-based Gamaleya Institute of Epidemic Studies and Microbiology has elaborated a mathematical model of avian influenza epidemical spread
Boris Boyev, epidemiological cybernetic laboratory chief, offered details to a Novosti news conference today. The thinktank proceeded from a hypothetic epidemic in Hong Kong, with approximately seven million population. If the epidemic breaks out, it will last four months to affect a ceiling two million. Morbidity is forecast at 365,000 on the 78th day, when the disaster reaches its peak, with the contagion rate at a daily 118,000. It is hard for now to prognosticate mortality rates, Mr. Boyev replied a reporter's question. "The virus does not pass from human to human for now-but it may mutate that way even tomorrow. It may never see the mutation, either, for that matter," he remarked. As for man catching the flue from poultry, several dozen such instances have been registered in Thailand, Vietnam and China for the few preceding years, with mortality rates up to 60 per cent, added the scientist
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