Vladimir Putin met with Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko yesterday

Tuesday, October 15, 2019

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Belarus remains the only state on Russia's western border that is not oriented toward Europe, says Deputy Director General of the Center for Political Technologies Alexei Makarkin. He says Putin has no alternative but to support the Belarussian regime. The analyst described the Putin-Lukashenko meeting on Monday as a sign of a militarily and strategically motivated thaw in relations. Next door to Russia's northwest, the Baltic states have joined NATO, which is what Ukraine, Russia's southwestern neighbor, also clearly wishes to do. This leaves Belarus as Russia's only remaining neighbor that is still oriented to Russian and not looking toward NATO. The two leaders successfully agreed upon the transit of natural gas, future WTO accession, and joint air defense policies. Although Moscow-Minsk cooperation does not seem to go beyond these "household" issues, Makarkin argues, Lukashenko in fact came to Russia to seek the Russian president's support in the run-up to the 2006 presidential election. With every movement in today's Belarussian opposition Western-funded, and with their leaders frantically developing various scenarios for another "velvet" revolution, whoever takes over from the current Belarussian authorities will most likely turn the country westward. Accordingly, whatever many figures in the Russian elite might think about Lukashenko, Russia really has no other option but to support him. At the same time, the analyst doubts that Moscow will support the Lukashenko regime militarily in a crisis. Financial aid and economic preferences - notably, lower gas prices - are seen as much more viable and acceptable methods.

Bookmark Vladimir Putin met with Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko yesterday